"At the national level, we believe that the jobs recovery will be quicker than we experienced in either of the two previous recessions in 1990-91 and 2001," members of Washington's Economic & Revenue Forecast Council were told today. The state's top forecasting body was meeting in Olympia as the national unemployment report was announced in the 'other' Washington.

"This state's rate of job loss has slowed sharply since the free-fall stage of the recession. State economists now expect employment here to bottom out early in the fourth quarter of this year with a peak-to-trough decline of 160,000 jobs lost.

"A second round of credit contraction is possible due to the vulnerability of local and regional banks around the country from their disproportionate exposure to commercial real estate," read the report from staff members reporting to Chief Economist Arun Raha. "Credit to small businesses and retailers heading into the holiday season remains tight. As we expected in September, the second quarter appears to have been the bottom for housing in Washington as measured by building permits."

The Washington recovery, like the national recovery, will be slow and U-shaped, according to Raha's forecast.